Air fares could rise by up to 61% by 2030, EU airlines warn Transport MEPs

Commercial-Airline-Passenger

Cynthia Ní Mhurchú MEP warns against return to “month’s wages” flights

EU airlines have warned Transport MEPs that rising EU compliance costs, taxes and environmental regulations could add almost €50 per passenger to ticket prices by 2030 — driving air fares up by as much as 61% by 2030.

Ní Mhurchú, a member of the European Parliament’s Transport Committee, said such increases would severely damage Ireland’s tourism sector, inward investment and connectivity as an island nation that depends on aviation.

“Air travel is not a luxury for Ireland — it is a necessity,” Ní Mhurchú said. “We cannot allow EU policies to push us back to the days when it took a month’s wages to fly to the UK.”

The warning comes as MEPs debate a raft of new EU air passenger rights in the European Parliament. Ní Mhurchú said that while consumer protections and climate action are important, airlines cannot absorb ever-increasing regulatory and taxation burdens without passing costs on to passengers.

“Passengers will ultimately pay the price for growing environmental rules, new airport taxes, enhanced passenger rights, sustainable fuel targets and heavy compliance burdens — many of which do not apply to non-EU airlines,” she said.

Ní Mhurchú cautioned that mounting EU regulation is undermining the competitiveness of European carriers compared with non-EU airlines, which face lower costs and operate from newer, well-funded airport hubs.

She stressed that modernising the WWII-era ownership and control rules of EU airlines would be essential to restoring competitiveness in the EU air transport sector.

The Ireland South MEP recently met with Ryanair in the European Parliament. A Ryanair spokesperson said EU air transport has suffered from over-regulation for decades, adding that 2026 represents a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” for Brussels to restore competitiveness.

EU airlines have highlighted the need for a level playing field on environmental costs between intra-EU flights — which are subject to the EU Emissions Trading System — and extra-EU flights, which are currently exempt, as well as reform of outdated ownership rules and long-standing failures in EU air traffic control that contribute to delays and cancellations.

Industry group, Airlines for Europe, which represents most EU carriers, estimates that EU-mandated sustainable aviation fuel targets alone will cost airlines €3.53 billion by 2030. In a report published in April 2025, the group found that EU legislation, regulation and market inefficiencies added €15.5 billion in costs for airlines operating in Europe.

Of that total, €9.9 billion in 2024 was attributed directly to EU environmental rules, consumer protection laws, taxation and corporate disclosure requirements. Airlines have also warned that proposed changes to the EU Emissions Trading System could increase fuel costs for intra-EU flights by up to 25% by 2030, further pushing up fares.

Ní Mhurchú said she supports climate action, emissions reduction and sustainable aviation, but questioned the pace and design of current EU policies.

“If flights leave Europe for less regulated parts of the world, emissions do not disappear — they are simply shifted elsewhere,” she said. “When airlines reroute through non-EU hubs, emissions are exported, not reduced.”

She warned that excessive regulation risks diverting traffic away from traditional EU hubs such as Paris and Frankfurt in favour of airports in Istanbul, Dubai and Doha.

“That means fewer routes, weaker connectivity, higher fares and a serious threat to Irish and European tourism — at a time when airfares elsewhere are falling,” she said.

Ní Mhurchú also criticised the EU’s lack of ambition on airport investment, describing many European airports as overcrowded, stressful and poorly equipped.

“While Europe dithers, other regions are investing heavily in modern airports and tourism infrastructure,” she said. “If we don’t act, we risk pricing people out of travel and damaging our competitiveness for years to come.”

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